Risk Identification II by Simone Hoferer

About the Lecture

The lecture Risk Identification II by Simone Hoferer is from the course Risk Management (RM): Preparing Offers. It contains the following chapters:

e) Creative thinking
f ) Checklists
Lateral Thinking
Sorting & categorizing
Distinct phrasing
Summary

Included Quiz Questions

Why is visualisation a suitable tool for supporting the identification of potential risks and chances?

Because the graphical illustration is making the connection, context, correlation, dependencies, sequences and operations visible.
Because it is a fast and effective tool to check the project from various angles.
Because it schedules the risk management planning.
Because it is the only tool which can be effectively used in a large group during risk assessment.

What should be prohibited during a brainstorming?

Thought-terminating clichés
Comments, corrections, judging and criticizing
Free associations and fantasy
Expressing ideas out of the box

When organizing a brainstorming, which of the following rules should you not follow?

Do not explain the rules to ensure creativity.
Make a “warm-up” at the start.
Create a heterogeneous group.
Provide a secure and trustful environment.
Record all ideas.

What are the disadvantages of a checklist?

Lots of effort to prepare
Complex connections hard to put into one
Requires continuous maintenance
Free associations
Identification of weak points and potential risks

What needs to be done after the identification of risks and chances but before action planning?

All identified points need to be sorted through, categorized, summarized and (very little) sorted out.
All identified points need to be categorized and minimized in number.
All identified points need to be approved by seniors.
All identified points need to be assigned to individual team members.

What is the purpose of the format "cause - risk - effect"?

With this format it is easier to reveal the causal relationships.
It provides beneficial conclusions about options to influence the potential course of events and possible action measures.
It makes the further handling of the identified points easier, since they are more clear due to the precise phrasing.
It helps to reduce the identified points down to two or three to make further handling easier.

What are the three steps of identification?

Identify & collect, sort through & categorize and distinct phrasing
Identify & collect, sort out & categorize and distinct phrasing
Idealize & collect, sort through & categorize and distinct phrasing
Identify & collect, sort through & characterize and distinct phrasing

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Excerpts from the accompanying material

... preparing offers Successful identification & precaution measures ...
... interior and furniture designer ...
... Several years of experience in: Project management, supervisor and quotin, Realisation of projects ...
... you to check into exciting and fascinating topics and to give you practical and ...
... it successfully during quoting stage. … are able to identify, analyse and evalutate risks and chance for the preparation offers. ...
... Fundamentals, terms and definitions 3.Risk management projecess (basics) 4.Phases of the risk management ...
... to travel around the world. And to discover the joy and ...
... join me with your future projects on a trip around the world through foreign ...
... internationality becomes more and more understood and common. However, quite often ...
... is: What does my project require, to ...
... Indicator for potential dangers ...
... in order to be able to plan ahead for the projects route and to ...
... know them yet or we aren´t really aware of them. If we are looking to much from our culutral point of view on projects in ...
... don´t know the hiking trails through the Himalyan mountains, if we haven´t been there before. Just because we are dealing with kown products ...
... comparison of an adventure trip with an international project lies a important key in how to approach strange an ...
... you live or work? How many different nationalities do you know personally (including neighbours and work acquaintances)? goal: To gain insight how much knowledge you already have ...
... eat up a lot of time and money and imply the risk of not being ...
... Misinterpretations are expensive, because… … the dimension of the world in ...
... Unsceduled purchase of goods and services often more expensive and higher effort in sourcing. Emergencies cause stress amd hectic and ...
... during quoting stage? To avoid or at least reduce ill surprises during ...
... management > Clarifying and understanding terms and definitions ...
... Body of Knowledge): „Project risk can be defined as an unforeseen event or activity in the future that can impact the project´s ...
... danger + chance Uncertainity in outcome future ...
... is an uncertainty regarding the outcome of future events. Possible outcomes hold ...
... accomplished in order to achieve an objective with regard to certain constraints such as time, ressources (e.g. finances/ ...
... derived from the latin word proiectum, which means „to cast something forward“. In ...
... the future = projected. Consisting of versatile requirements with manifold of to ...
... Correlation of risk and project ...
... and because it is to take place in the future, what´s the sense ...
... potential risks und take appropriate measures in order to: Influence the probability of occurrence towards the ...
... profit risk loss risk management Grafikc ...
... Summary risk management: Risk management is ...
... were not identified or realized … were lacking of understanding … would have been preventable or at least ...
... of times due to the fact, that we never in our wildest dreams would have ...
... the willingness to look closely into the project and to intensively ...
... •It´s not only important to prepare a coherent offer in regards of content (product ...
... how to deal with them. Take care that appropriate measures are beeing taken. Communicate with all parties ...
... it is. Risk management which is suitable for everyday use, is based ...
... the individual phases and there interconnection in the entire process. ...
... the following categories/ steps: Risk management planning. Identification of risks and opportunities ...
... Defines processes and communication channels. Is the definition of what? When? Who? and How? ...
... consider that … … the RM is an integral part of the project management process. … all involved parties are trained ...
... importance of the project for the company. … proportionality between project size and company size. ...
... design therefore is the basic structure of the paddel-wheel and defines ...
... and individual situations. Stress resistant and usable in project reality. Coherent relation between effort and ...
... - process steps. How to approach? - procedure. Who does what? - responsibility and roles. When is what to do? ...
... for big and small are defined and how much detail the RM should be performed. ...
... basic layout of RM is defined in the RM-plan: General process. Risk categories. Proect categories ...
... for the importance of identification of risks and opportunities > Learning how to approach the identification ...
... in the whole RM process. ...
... with those risks and chances which were made visible through identification. One can only make use of the ...
... of identification of risks and chances it to make potential hazards and opportunities ...
... risks that are yet unknown for us? How can I recognize things that I´m ...
... Would you familiarize with the country, the subject, the route, the people, the language, the culture and the currency of the target country? ...
... whole project. It helps you to detach from the project far enough to discover new ...
... First step is to collect as many possible risks and chances you can think of. Dig into the project, ...
... use lessons learned c)Research d)Inteview experts (inside & outside the company ) ...
... request data: Scann all documents shortly after receiving and note everything you notice and stands out as well ...
... ?Are there similar projects? Who could know ?What is familiar? What is unknown territory? Is the time schedule feasable? ...
... possibility of lack of knowledge, skill or practise Indistinct: who? what? deadline? where? how? = information gaps ...
... of parties involved (team, customer, supplier, controller, local agent). Dimension (distance, volume, quantity, duration) ...
... more and more knowledge and skills and by practising to assess situations as fast as possible. Note your first guess (gut feeling) and ...
... with the real outcome and check where you have ssumed correctly and where you were off. Train this as often as possible and also apply it to your running projects. You can even train your ...
... evaluation and concentration of experiences, gained knowlede, developments, details, information and references, mistakes and risks ...
... company Applicable and useful: o to familiarize with the subject o to control an cross check information o to complete ...
... and data + In case of established data from your own company you gain good comparability ...
... lucky chances are often one-time events -Pure data provide not background information of the individual context of the project -Documentation ...
... and verified. Most of the times it is advisable to talk to the collegue in charge of the project in order ...
... the internet, libraries, in archives, agencies, administration and organisations. Reaserch documents, data and ...
... coprehend the gained information. One needs to realize that he doesn´t know in order to ask a question ...
... evaluation, expertise, knowledge, background information, recommendation preperation: key questions, main goal of interview => The result will ...
... and evaluation after the interviews. -Danger of highly personal tinged opinion + Questions can be answered individually and additional information ...
... Structural plan of project – Timetable of proect – „Travel ...
... clearly phrased (e.g. what are the chances and the risks of carrying out a project in Moscow? ) ...
... Give everybody the opprotunity to speak up -Comments, corrections, judging and criticizing ...
... solitarily written down and than collected, added and combined. Electronic brainstorming: Mixture between brainwriting and brainstorming ...
... What did work out well? What went wrong? What´s the situation in the foreign country? What should be approached differently and how? ...
... will my project require during preparation, on the travel (shipping), during installation, in the final stage and after completion? ...
... Fast and effective tool to examine and scan the project from various points of view in detail ...
... the oroject, it´s easy to identify the flaws, bottlenecks, conflicts and risks. Important to check the duration, ...
... potential risks and chances. Lot of effort to prepare a good checklist. Complex connections hard to put into ...
... identify and to uncover indicators of potential and yet unknown dangers. When to use which method? ...
... projects to ask new and unconvetional questions. With known questions I will only able to catch known risks. Lateral ...
... collected and identified a lot of potential risks and ...
... do next for preparing for our adventure vacation? ...
... for analyzing phase > The more distinct risks are described, the more specific they ...
... 1.Name and describe the cause 2.Characterize the risk/ chance ...
... define events, situations or given facts which may cause risks. Risk/ chance: describe the potential risk ...
... for the planning of action steps and ways of influencing the outcome. Helps to recognize at which point ...
... as specific as possible > To get to the bottom of the cause to identify the real ...
... and collect (quantity), cross checking 2.Sort and categorize 3.Distinct ...
... Risk Management Process 6. Communication 1. RM-Design ...
... comprehend the difference and the range of use for each method ...
... the relativity of the risk and of the effect: small or big b)Quantitative risk assesment puts a number to a potential risk ...
... as basis for deciding for which risks actions steps need to be defined. Serves as basis to decide if ...
... practise for qualitative risk assessment ...
... schedule Unforeseen events cannot be compensated Delay and additional costs 3 Winter in Russia during shipping Truck is stuck; higher risk ...
... clarify the evaluation basis you have to define the scales (if it not already was defined ...
... Winter in Russia during shipping Truck is stuck; higher risk of accident Delay; goods beeing damaged a) Table qualitative risk assessment ...
... Experience and lessons learned. Use your whole team for evaluation ...
... evaluation approach and prediction based on experience and personal perception ...
... a chart to visualize the rating of the identified risks and opportunities. ...
... the rating into the table you may use a big matrix and let your team evaluate the risks ...
... very differently and double check them. Dig deep into the spikes. In case of doubt include them into ...
... the engines would fail was rated as very low. However the effect was disastrous. All astronauts died. The o-rings were not suitable for low ...
... high effects or risks which are easy to avoid. Don´t be fooled by fear or ...
... Quantification of the potential consequences in costs and labourdays. goal: increased awareness on which points to ...
... proper evaluation? Tip: Ask seniors, collegues, experts. Use your team. Include aspects as quality ...
... however this time fill in seperatedly the costs and the days for the worst case and for the best case ...
... Important step before action planning. Gives information how much effort needs to ...
... perspective from detail to the whole. Combination of written form, charts and visualisation ...
... lot or rather few risks? Are these rather big or small? How many are in the red zone? How many critical? ...
... risk management process before finalizing the quote. ...
... have identified risks and opportunities. We rated, evaluated and prioritized or even quantified ...
... more tokens in the own color. Target of the action plan is the same thing: to convert risks ...
... cause Reduce probability or scope of effect Transfer to third parties: customer, insurance, supplier ...
... Not identified chances Accept and enjoy Identified opprotunities Overall opprotunities exploit Keep ...
... How can we influence it to our advantage? Instead of: Can we influence it at all? ...
... find new and appropriate solutions. What? Who? When? How? What can I do? When is the most effective time? ...
... or processes in a experimental, playful yet systematic way goal: to develop new ideas based on existing and available ...
... customer, supplier and other project parties in the preparation of action measures to gain the best possible solution. After finalizing ...
... during quoting stage: a)Define and exclude b)Insure and provide c)Allow and provide ...
... possible scope of works, content and kind of performance ...
... insurance e.g. for freight damage, variation in currency rate, guarantee insurance for payment default ...
... Choose adequate team size. Prepare emergency measures. Consider changes ...
... to covered from the profit or by the company. What can the budget compensate? How much additional expenses ...
... potential problems ahead. Expect future changes and aberations. Name triggers (events) to effect planned measures ...
... What needs to be done? Who is responsible for what? ...
... Accidents. Natural disasters. Dangers out of reach of influence such ...
... phrased clearly and distinctly M Measurable > performance, units, quality, quantity, scope of works and duties ...
... plan, emergency and backup plan and schedule. Communicate the core measures, risks and chances to your team, your ...
... ensure best possible coverage of the project. To induce pro-active doing before potential risks become reality and a problem for the ...
... A key prevention measure to evite avoidable risks ...
... potential hazards, dangers, right of way, direction, distances and for better orientation or navigation. ...
... communication of chances? E.g. from travel guides and brochures. They point out the ...
... Informations signs and instruction plates are a nice way of risk communication ...
... background knowledge and experience. Personal imprinting and perception. Comprehension of particular context, interrelation, terms, technology ...
... Behaviour depends on perception and understanding not on facts. A good communication ...
... What kind of information is important for the customer? What do the risks mean for our team ...
... Keep records of your communication as well. The more important the information, the more important is ...
... the offer: Repeat the overall risk assessment. Again switch ...
... Not identified dangers & hazards risk Risk management Chance/ ...
... own individual plan of implementation, possible approaches and steps ...
... important part if you made it up to here. You developed an increased awareness for ...
... steps and make them a positive habit. Gradually extend (how do you climb a mountain? One step after ...
... implementation or risk management 2: Put your implementation plan into a written form ...
... if beeing stressed. Take small but continuous steps. Rather small steps at a time than big steps and than abandoning it ...
... more thing: Whatever you do better now as before ...
... unique and your projects will take place in the future. Keep critical and check which of the ...
... you very much for your attention and ...
... opportunities during follow- up care > There are also compact trainings availabel for all three parts in German ...
... have questions, need some support or would like to share your feedback or exciting stories ...
... able to forsee future constellations or situations. It is your responsibility to check all content, information and tools before ...

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